LA Senate forecast
Safe Rep
Polls close . Statewide at 8:00 PM local time
Letlow 93% chance
- Jamie Davis (D)+1% past 7 days8%
- Julia Letlow (R)-1% past 7 days93%
Chance over time
- Davis8%
- Letlow93%
Chance over time, past month: Davis from 7% to 8%; Letlow from 93% to 93%.
| Date | Davis | Letlow |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 7% | 93% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 7% | 93% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 6% | 94% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 7% | 93% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 8% | 93% |
Projected margin
Most likely Letlow by 0–5 · 8 in 10: Letlow +24.2 to Letlow +0.5
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Letlow by 35+ | 2% |
| Letlow by 30–35 | 2% |
| Letlow by 25–30 | 4% |
| Letlow by 20–25 | 12% |
| Letlow by 15–20 | 11% |
| Letlow by 10–15 | 19% |
| Letlow by 5–10 | 18% |
| Letlow by 0–5 | 25% |
| Davis wins | 8% |