FL-22 House forecast
Toss up2026 lines
Polls close
Dandiya 55% chance
- Pia Dandiya (D)0% past 7 days55%
- Casey Askar (R)-2% past 7 days45%
Chance over time
- Dandiya55%
- Askar45%
Chance over time, past month: Dandiya from 41% to 55%; Askar from 59% to 45%.
| Date | Dandiya | Askar |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 44% | 56% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 51% | 49% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 54% | 47% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 55% | 47% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 55% | 45% |
Projected margin
No margin forecast for this race.
Helm simulation
Decides House control in 1 of 100 simulations.
In simulated elections where Dandiya wins, Democrats win the House in 96 of 100. Where Askar wins, in 86 of 100.
Context
- New lines for 2026: the current FL-22 member was elected on different lines.