FL-13 House forecast
Likely Rep2026 lines
Polls close
Luna 75% chance
- Leela Gray (D)-2% past 7 days25%
- Anna Paulina Luna (R)+1% past 7 days75%
Chance over time
- Gray25%
- Luna75%
Chance over time, past month: Gray from 27% to 25%; Luna from 73% to 75%.
| Date | Gray | Luna |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 27% | 74% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 27% | 72% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 25% | 74% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 27% | 74% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 25% | 75% |
Projected margin
Most likely Luna by 3–6 · 8 in 10: Luna +12.6 to Gray +4.3
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Luna by 18+ | 4% |
| Luna by 15–18 | 3% |
| Luna by 12–15 | 4% |
| Luna by 9–12 | 3% |
| Luna by 6–9 | 16% |
| Luna by 3–6 | 23% |
| Luna by 0–3 | 22% |
| Gray by 0–3 | 11% |
| Gray by 3–6 | 9% |
| Gray by 6+ | 5% |
Helm simulation
In simulated elections where Gray wins, Democrats win the House in 98 of 100. Where Luna wins, in 90 of 100.
Context
- New lines for 2026: the current FL-13 member was elected on different lines.