FL-21 House forecast
Likely Rep2026 lines
Polls close
Mast 85% chance
- James Martin (D)+5% past 7 days14%
- Brian Mast (R)-5% past 7 days85%
Chance over time
- Martin14%
- Mast85%
Chance over time, past month: Martin from 7% to 14%; Mast from 92% to 85%.
| Date | Martin | Mast |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 9% | 91% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 10% | 91% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 10% | 90% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 10% | 90% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 14% | 85% |
Projected margin
Most likely Mast by 5–10 · 8 in 10: Mast +22.6 to a Martin win
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Mast by 30+ | 3% |
| Mast by 25–30 | 4% |
| Mast by 20–25 | 7% |
| Mast by 15–20 | 21% |
| Mast by 10–15 | 23% |
| Mast by 5–10 | 25% |
| Mast by 0–5 | 5% |
| Martin wins | 12% |
Helm simulation
In simulated elections where Martin wins, Democrats win the House in 98 of 100. Where Mast wins, in 90 of 100.
Context
- New lines for 2026: the current FL-21 member was elected on different lines.