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2026 Midterm Election Forecast

Updated

12 days, 17 hours and 32 minutes until Election Day, Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

65% chance Democratstake the Senate

+1% over the past 7 days

31 seats: Republican, not up in 2026
13 seats: Safe Republican
2 seats: Likely Republican
2 seats: Lean Republican
3 seats: Lean Democratic
2 seats: Likely Democratic
13 seats: Safe Democratic
34 seats: Democratic, not up in 2026
48 Republicans52 Democrats

Simulated by HelmHelm simulation: 8 in 10 simulated Senates land between 48 and 54 Democratic seats (median 51, +4 vs today) Explore the range

See how it changed

How it changed

92% chance Democratstake the House

+1% over the past 7 days

157 seats: Safe Republican
29 seats: Likely Republican
14 seats: Lean Republican
2 seats: Toss up
7 seats: Lean Democratic
11 seats: Likely Democratic
215 seats: Safe Democratic
200 Republicans235 Democrats

Simulated by HelmHelm simulation: 8 in 10 simulated Houses land between 219 and 262 Democratic seats (median 240, +26 vs today) Explore the range

See how it changed

How it changed

Seat key

  • Not up in 2026
  • Safe
  • Likely
  • Lean
  • Toss up

Helm simulation

Simulation Lab

Twenty thousand simulated elections built on the race probabilities on this page. Races move together, so totals spread wider than counting favourites suggests.

Democrats win the Senate in 64 of 100 simulated elections Simulated by Helm

Median 51 seats. 8 in 10 simulations: 48–54. Calibrated to the published Senate chance: 65% D vs 36% R, rescaled to sum to 100 → 64% D. Counting favourites gives 52

Democratic seats, including independents who caucus with them

  • Democrats control
  • Republicans control
  • Median
  • Each dot: 1 in 100 simulated elections
Senate: simulated distribution of Democratic seats (Helm simulation)
SeatsSimulations of 100Control
44 or fewer1Republicans
45fewer than 1Republicans
462Republicans
474Republicans
486Republicans
499Republicans
5014Republicans
5115Democrats
5216Democrats
5314Democrats
549Democrats
556Democrats
562Democrats
57 or more2Democrats

Helm simulation built on published probabilities; not a poll-based model.

Helm simulation

Path to majority

The races most likely to decide control, and how far each one moves it.

The tipping-point race is the one that delivers the majority when every race is ordered from most to least Democratic.

Simulated by HelmIn the Helm simulation, the races most likely to decide the Senate are Texas, Ohio, Maine and Michigan; Democrats need about 4 of the 7 battlegrounds.

Helm simulation built on published probabilities; not a poll-based model.

Race ratings map

Select a state for its forecast

One possible election night at a time, drawn from the Helm simulation

Use the arrow keys to move between states. Press Enter to pin a race's details and Escape to close them.

  • D favoured18
  • R favoured17
  • Toss ups0
  • Flips5

Probabilities from public sources, collected by Helm's data infrastructure

Referendums top ballot measures

Summary

24 statewide ballot measures and 1 local measure across 17 states have a live forecast this cycle. Each card shows the side currently favoured, its probability and how that probability has moved over the past week; the dashed rule marks an even split. 18 lean toward passing and 7 toward failing, and 8 sit within ten points of an even split. The sharpest one-week swing is 25 points (CO). Lightly followed questions can swing on very little news, so read large one-week moves with care.

Biggest races most pivotal contests

Summary

These 20 contests pair the tightest forecasts with the widest attention, which makes them the likeliest to decide who controls each chamber. The list spans 8 Senate seats, 3 governorships and 9 House districts; 1 is a toss-up, 14 lean one way and 5 are rated likely. 7 currently point to a change in party control, among them TX Senate and ME Senate. The closest is GA Governor, where the favourite sits at 52%. The biggest 7-day move is in VA-05 House (-11%). Each line traces the leading candidate's chance over the past seven days; select a card to find the race on the map.

Election news

Balanced across outlets. Each item links to its source.

All races 506 races

Candidate
Tier
TX Senate
65% DEM
James Talarico
Lean DLean Dem
+2.0%
ME Senate
65% DEM
Troy Jackson
Lean DLean Dem
+5.0%
MI Senate
70% DEM
Abdul El-Sayed
Likely DLikely Dem
+1.5%
OH Senate
64% DEM
Sherrod Brown
Lean DLean Dem
+2.5%
IA Senate
58% REP
Ashley Hinson
Lean RLean Rep
+0.5%
AK Senate
75% DEM
Mary Peltola
Likely DLikely Dem
+1.0%
KS Senate
62% REP
Roger Marshall
Lean RLean Rep
-0.5%
NE Senate
72% REP
Pete Ricketts
Likely RLikely Rep
-1.0%
SC Senate
82% REP
Darline Graham Nordone
Likely RLikely Rep
-3.0%
MN Senate
88% DEM
Peggy Flanagan
Safe DSafe Dem
+1.0%
NH Senate
91% DEM
Chris Pappas
Safe DSafe Dem
+2.5%
MS Senate
89% REP
Cindy Hyde-Smith
Safe RSafe Rep
-4.0%
FL Senate
92% REP
Ashley Moody
Safe RSafe Rep
+1.0%
MT Senate
92% REP
Kurt Alme
Safe RSafe Rep
-1.0%
GA Senate
96% DEM
Jon Ossoff
Safe DSafe Dem
-0.4%
ID Senate
95% REP
Jim Risch
Safe RSafe Rep
-0.3%
NC Senate
97% DEM
Roy Cooper
Safe DSafe Dem
+0.8%
SD Senate
93% REP
Mike Rounds
Safe RSafe Rep
-1.8%
TN Senate
96% REP
Bill Hagerty
Safe RSafe Rep
+1.7%
LA Senate
93% REP
Julia Letlow
Safe RSafe Rep
0.0%
AR Senate
95% REP
Tom Cotton
Safe RSafe Rep
+1.4%
KY Senate
97% REP
Andy Barr
Safe RSafe Rep
+0.5%
MA Senate
98% DEM
Ed Markey
Safe DSafe Dem
-0.1%
NJ Senate
97% DEM
Cory Booker
Safe DSafe Dem
-0.4%
OK Senate
97% REP
Kevin Hern
Safe RSafe Rep
-0.1%

Showing 25 of 35 races · Probabilities from public sources, collected by Helm's data infrastructure

Midterms 2026 forecasts

2026 midterm election forecasts — live probabilities
RaceLeading outcomesProbability
California Governor Election WinnerXavier Becerra97%
Steve Hilton3%
Balance of Power: 2026 MidtermsDemocrats Sweep64%
R Senate, D House28%
Republicans Sweep9%
D Senate, R House1%
Which party will win the House in 2026?Democratic Party92%
Republican Party9%
Which party will win the Senate in 2026?Democratic Party65%
Republican Party36%
Texas Senate Election WinnerJames Talarico (D)65%
Ken Paxton (R)36%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Yes23%
Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?≤4741%
4818%
5013%
4912%
5110%
524%
534%
542%
552%
561%

50 forecasts · Outcomes ranked by probability · Probabilities from public sources, collected by Helm's data infrastructure

House
92% DEM
Senate
65% DEM