ME Senate forecast
Lean DemProjected flip R → D
Polls close
Jackson 65% chance
- Troy Jackson (D)+5% past 7 days65%
- Susan Collins (R)-7% past 7 days35%
Chance over time
- Jackson65%
- Collins35%
Key moments
· Around this time
Times/Siena poll shows Collins narrowly ahead
A New York Times/Siena/Portland Press Herald poll taken Sept. 15-22 found Sen. Susan Collins at 49% and Troy Jackson at 46%, the first survey since Jackson's entry to show Collins leading.
Spectrum News: Collins leads Jackson in new Maine poll (opens in a new tab)
Chance over time, past month: Jackson from 70% to 65%; Collins from 31% to 35%. Press [ or ] to go to the key moment marked on the line.
| Date | Jackson | Collins |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 73% | 30% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 60% | 39% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 59% | 42% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 60% | 42% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 65% | 35% |
Projected margin
No margin forecast for this race.
Helm simulation
Decides Senate control in 9 of 100 simulations.
In simulated elections where Jackson wins, Democrats win the Senate in 78 of 100. Where Collins wins, in 40 of 100.
Context
- Seat held by Republicans.
- Projected flip from Republicans to Democrats: the favourite is not from the party that holds it.