OH-10 House forecast
Lean Rep2026 lines
Polls close
Turner 64% chance
- Kristina Knickerbocker (D)+22% past 7 days36%
- Mike Turner (R)-21% past 7 days64%
Chance over time
- Knickerbocker36%
- Turner64%
Chance over time, past month: Knickerbocker from 17% to 36%; Turner from 84% to 64%.
| Date | Knickerbocker | Turner |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 17% | 83% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 15% | 84% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 16% | 84% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 15% | 84% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 36% | 64% |
Projected margin
Most likely Turner by 6–9 · 8 in 10: Turner +18 to Knickerbocker +3
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Turner by 21+ | 6% |
| Turner by 18–21 | 4% |
| Turner by 15–18 | 4% |
| Turner by 12–15 | 7% |
| Turner by 9–12 | 10% |
| Turner by 6–9 | 17% |
| Turner by 3–6 | 15% |
| Turner by 0–3 | 12% |
| Knickerbocker by 0–3 | 15% |
| Knickerbocker by 3+ | 11% |
Helm simulation
Decides House control in 1 of 100 simulations.
In simulated elections where Knickerbocker wins, Democrats win the House in 97 of 100. Where Turner wins, in 89 of 100.
Context
- New lines for 2026: the current OH-10 member was elected on different lines.