OH-05 House forecast
Safe Rep2026 lines
Polls close
Latta 96% chance
- Brian Shaver (D)-2% past 7 days5%
- Bob Latta (R)+4% past 7 days96%
Chance over time
- Shaver5%
- Latta96%
Chance over time, past month: Shaver from 6% to 5%; Latta from 94% to 96%.
| Date | Shaver | Latta |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 6% | 94% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 6% | 94% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 5% | 96% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 6% | 93% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 5% | 96% |
Projected margin
Most likely Latta by 20–25 · 8 in 10: Latta +33 to Latta +9.3
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Latta by 35+ | 5% |
| Latta by 30–35 | 12% |
| Latta by 25–30 | 5% |
| Latta by 20–25 | 27% |
| Latta by 15–20 | 22% |
| Latta by 10–15 | 19% |
| Latta by 5–10 | 5% |
| Latta by 0–5 | 4% |
| Shaver wins | 1% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- New lines for 2026: the current OH-05 member was elected on different lines.