OH-01 House forecast
Safe Dem2026 lines
Polls close
Landsman 95% chance
- Greg Landsman (D)+3% past 7 days95%
- Eric Conroy (R)-4% past 7 days5%
Chance over time
- Landsman95%
- Conroy5%
Chance over time, past month: Landsman from 85% to 95%; Conroy from 16% to 5%.
| Date | Landsman | Conroy |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 84% | 16% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 87% | 13% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 87% | 12% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 90% | 12% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 95% | 5% |
Projected margin
Most likely Landsman by 9–12 · 8 in 10: Landsman +2.1 to Landsman +19.2
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Conroy by 3+ | <1% |
| Conroy by 0–3 | 5% |
| Landsman by 0–3 | 6% |
| Landsman by 3–6 | 10% |
| Landsman by 6–9 | 15% |
| Landsman by 9–12 | 19% |
| Landsman by 12–15 | 16% |
| Landsman by 15–18 | 12% |
| Landsman by 18–21 | 12% |
| Landsman by 21+ | 3% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- New lines for 2026: the current OH-01 member was elected on different lines.