OH-04 House forecast
Safe Rep2026 lines
Polls close
Jordan 95% chance
- Joshua Kolasinski (D)0% past 7 days5%
- Jim Jordan (R)0% past 7 days95%
Chance over time
- Kolasinski5%
- Jordan95%
Chance over time, past month: Kolasinski from 5% to 5%; Jordan from 95% to 95%.
| Date | Kolasinski | Jordan |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 5% | 95% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 6% | 95% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 5% | 96% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 5% | 96% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 5% | 95% |
Projected margin
Most likely Jordan by 30–35 · 8 in 10: Jordan +43.6 to Jordan +23.5
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Jordan by 55+ | 1% |
| Jordan by 50–55 | 2% |
| Jordan by 45–50 | 3% |
| Jordan by 40–45 | 15% |
| Jordan by 35–40 | 23% |
| Jordan by 30–35 | 32% |
| Jordan by 25–30 | 13% |
| Jordan by 15–25 | 11% |
| Jordan by 0–15 | <1% |
| Kolasinski wins | <1% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- New lines for 2026: the current OH-04 member was elected on different lines.