OH-12 House forecast
Safe Rep2026 lines
Polls close
Balderson 95% chance
- Jerrad Christian (D)0% past 7 days5%
- Troy Balderson (R)-1% past 7 days95%
Chance over time
- Christian5%
- Balderson95%
Chance over time, past month: Christian from 5% to 5%; Balderson from 95% to 95%.
| Date | Christian | Balderson |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 5% | 95% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 5% | 95% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 5% | 95% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 5% | 95% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 5% | 95% |
Projected margin
Most likely Balderson by 20–25 · 8 in 10: Balderson +34.4 to Balderson +10.7
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Balderson by 40+ | 3% |
| Balderson by 35–40 | 6% |
| Balderson by 30–35 | 11% |
| Balderson by 25–30 | 14% |
| Balderson by 20–25 | 27% |
| Balderson by 15–20 | 23% |
| Balderson by 10–15 | 8% |
| Balderson by 0–10 | 3% |
| Christian wins | 6% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- New lines for 2026: the current OH-12 member was elected on different lines.