OH-13 House forecast
Safe Dem2026 lines
Polls close
Sykes 95% chance
- Emilia Sykes (D)-1% past 7 days95%
- Carey Coleman (R)0% past 7 days2%
Chance over time
- Sykes96%
- Coleman2%
Chance over time, past month: Sykes from 98% to 96%; Coleman from 2% to 2%.
| Date | Sykes | Coleman |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 96% | 3% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 96% | 3% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 98% | 1% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 97% | 1% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 96% | 2% |
Projected margin
Most likely Sykes by 15–20 · 8 in 10: Sykes +6.2 to Sykes +28.4
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Coleman wins | <1% |
| Sykes by 0–5 | 7% |
| Sykes by 5–10 | 11% |
| Sykes by 10–15 | 9% |
| Sykes by 15–20 | 32% |
| Sykes by 20–25 | 21% |
| Sykes by 25–30 | 15% |
| Sykes by 30+ | 5% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- New lines for 2026: the current OH-13 member was elected on different lines.