ID-02 House forecast
Safe Rep2024 lines
Polls close . Districtwide at 8:00 PM local time
Simpson 95% chance
- Ellie Gilbreath (D)+1% past 7 days4%
- Mike Simpson (R)-1% past 7 days95%
Chance over time
- Gilbreath4%
- Simpson95%
Chance over time, past month: Gilbreath from 6% to 4%; Simpson from 95% to 95%.
| Date | Gilbreath | Simpson |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | 6% | 95% |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 4% | 95% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 4% | 95% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 3% | 95% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 4% | 95% |
Projected margin
Most likely Simpson by 15–20 · 8 in 10: Simpson +29.9 to Simpson +11.3
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Simpson by 35+ | 1% |
| Simpson by 30–35 | 9% |
| Simpson by 25–30 | 9% |
| Simpson by 20–25 | 26% |
| Simpson by 15–20 | 30% |
| Simpson by 10–15 | 21% |
| Simpson by 5–10 | 3% |
| Simpson by 0–5 | 1% |
| Gilbreath wins | 1% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- Held by Rep. Michael K. Simpson (R)
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