ID Senate forecast
Safe Rep
Polls close . Statewide at 8:00 PM local time: 10:00 PM ET in most of Idaho, 11:00 PM ET in the Pacific-time north, including Coeur d’Alene and Lewiston
Risch 95% chance
- Todd Achilles (I)+1% past 7 days5%
- Jim Risch (R)0% past 7 days95%
Chance over time
- Achilles5%
- Risch95%
Chance over time, past month: Achilles from 4% to 5%; Risch from 95% to 95%.
| Date | Achilles | Risch |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | 4% | 95% |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 6% | 95% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 6% | 95% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 4% | 95% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 5% | 95% |
Projected margin
Most likely Risch by 15–20 · 8 in 10: Risch +33 to Risch +5.2
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Risch by 40+ | 4% |
| Risch by 35–40 | 2% |
| Risch by 30–35 | 10% |
| Risch by 25–30 | 6% |
| Risch by 20–25 | 15% |
| Risch by 15–20 | 25% |
| Risch by 10–15 | 16% |
| Risch by 5–10 | 13% |
| Risch by 0–5 | 5% |
| Achilles wins | 4% |
Helm simulation
Decides Senate control in fewer than 1 of 100 simulations.
In simulated elections where Achilles wins, Democrats win the Senate in 86 of 100. Where Risch wins, in 63 of 100.
Context
- Seat held by Republicans.
More in Idaho
Ballot measures
- Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?No 87%