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NJ-02 House forecast

Likely Rep2024 lines

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Van Drew 72% chance

  • Zack Mullock (D)+12% past 7 days27%
  • Jeff Van Drew (R)-12% past 7 days72%

Chance over time

  • Mullock27%
  • Van Drew71%

Chance over time, past month: Mullock from 13% to 27%; Van Drew from 84% to 71%.

Chance over time, past month, weekly
DateMullockVan Drew
Sep 22, 202613%84%
Sep 29, 202622%81%
Oct 6, 202620%81%
Oct 14, 202616%83%
Oct 21, 202627%71%

Projected margin

No margin forecast for this race.

Helm simulation

In simulated elections where Mullock wins, Democrats win the House in 97 of 100. Where Van Drew wins, in 89 of 100.

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Context

  • Held by Rep. Jefferson Van Drew (R)

More in New Jersey

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News and signals

House
92% DEM
Senate
65% DEM