NJ-10 House forecast
Safe Dem2024 lines
Polls close
McIver 98% chance
- LaMonica McIver (D)0% past 7 days98%
- Carmen Bucco (R)0% past 7 days2%
Chance over time
- McIver98%
- Bucco2%
Chance over time, past month: McIver from 95% to 98%; Bucco from 4% to 2%.
| Date | McIver | Bucco |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | 96% | 4% |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 98% | 3% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 99% | <1% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 99% | 2% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 98% | 2% |
Projected margin
Most likely McIver by 60–65 · 8 in 10: McIver +46.9 to McIver +69.2
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Bucco wins | 1% |
| McIver by 0–35 | 3% |
| McIver by 35–45 | 5% |
| McIver by 45–50 | 2% |
| McIver by 50–55 | 12% |
| McIver by 55–60 | 19% |
| McIver by 60–65 | 27% |
| McIver by 65–70 | 25% |
| McIver by 70–75 | 5% |
| McIver by 75+ | 1% |