NJ-01 House forecast
Safe Dem2024 lines
Polls close
Norcross 96% chance
- Donald Norcross (D)0% past 7 days96%
- Damon Galdo (R)-1% past 7 days3%
Chance over time
- Norcross96%
- Galdo3%
Chance over time, past month: Norcross from 95% to 96%; Galdo from 5% to 3%.
| Date | Norcross | Galdo |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 95% | 6% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 95% | 5% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 96% | 4% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 96% | 4% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 96% | 3% |
Projected margin
Most likely Norcross by 25–30 · 8 in 10: Norcross +4.1 to Norcross +39.2
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Galdo wins | 7% |
| Norcross by 0–5 | 3% |
| Norcross by 5–15 | 4% |
| Norcross by 15–20 | 2% |
| Norcross by 20–25 | 7% |
| Norcross by 25–30 | 29% |
| Norcross by 30–35 | 29% |
| Norcross by 35–40 | 11% |
| Norcross by 40–45 | 8% |
| Norcross by 45+ | <1% |