MD-01 House forecast
Likely Rep2024 lines
Polls close
Harris 85% chance
- Dan Schwartz (D)+9% past 7 days15%
- Andy Harris (R)-9% past 7 days85%
Chance over time
- Schwartz15%
- Harris85%
Chance over time, past month: Schwartz from 9% to 15%; Harris from 91% to 85%.
| Date | Schwartz | Harris |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | 10% | 91% |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 11% | 90% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 11% | 90% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 7% | 93% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 15% | 87% |
Projected margin
Most likely Harris by 12–15 · 8 in 10: Harris +17.7 to Harris +3.2
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Harris by 21+ | 2% |
| Harris by 18–21 | 7% |
| Harris by 15–18 | 18% |
| Harris by 12–15 | 20% |
| Harris by 9–12 | 19% |
| Harris by 6–9 | 20% |
| Harris by 3–6 | 4% |
| Harris by 0–3 | 2% |
| Schwartz by 0–3 | 4% |
| Schwartz by 3+ | 3% |