MD-05 House forecast
Safe Dem2024 lines
Polls close
Boafo 97% chance
- Adrian Boafo (D)+1% past 7 days97%
- Chris Chaffee (R)0% past 7 days3%
Chance over time
- Boafo97%
- Chaffee3%
Chance over time, past month: Boafo from 95% to 97%; Chaffee from 3% to 3%.
| Date | Boafo | Chaffee |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 95% | 3% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 95% | 3% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 97% | 3% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 97% | 3% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 97% | 3% |
Projected margin
Most likely Boafo by 45–50 · 8 in 10: Boafo +28.7 to Boafo +52.8
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Chaffee wins | 3% |
| Boafo by 0–15 | 1% |
| Boafo by 15–25 | 4% |
| Boafo by 25–30 | 3% |
| Boafo by 30–35 | 10% |
| Boafo by 35–40 | 9% |
| Boafo by 40–45 | 23% |
| Boafo by 45–50 | 31% |
| Boafo by 50–55 | 11% |
| Boafo by 55+ | 5% |