MD Governor forecast
Safe Dem
Polls close
Moore 98% chance
- Wes Moore (D)0% past 7 days98%
- Dan Cox (R)+1% past 7 days2%
Chance over time
- Moore98%
- Cox2%
Chance over time, past month: Moore from 96% to 98%; Cox from 3% to 2%.
| Date | Moore | Cox |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | 97% | 3% |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 97% | 2% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 97% | 2% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 98% | 1% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 98% | 2% |
Projected margin
Most likely Moore by 40–45 · 8 in 10: Moore +13.7 to Moore +43.7
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Cox wins | 5% |
| Moore by 0–10 | 3% |
| Moore by 10–15 | 3% |
| Moore by 15–20 | 5% |
| Moore by 20–25 | 15% |
| Moore by 25–30 | 15% |
| Moore by 30–35 | 13% |
| Moore by 35–40 | 13% |
| Moore by 40–45 | 24% |
| Moore by 45+ | 4% |
Helm simulation
Counts toward the simulated number of governorships. There is no published control question for governors.
Context
- Governorship held by Democrats.
More in Maryland
Ballot measures
- Maryland passes redistricting requirements ballot measure?Yes 53%