MT-01 House forecast
Lean Rep2024 lines
Polls close . Statewide at 8:00 PM local time
Flint 61% chance
- Sam Forstag (D)+8% past 7 days40%
- Aaron Flint (R)-8% past 7 days61%
Chance over time
- Forstag40%
- Flint61%
Chance over time, past month: Forstag from 32% to 40%; Flint from 68% to 61%.
| Date | Forstag | Flint |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 33% | 68% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 33% | 68% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 33% | 68% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 32% | 69% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 40% | 61% |
Projected margin
Most likely Flint by 0–3 · 8 in 10: Flint +8.1 to Forstag +6.9
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Flint by 12+ | 5% |
| Flint by 9–12 | 2% |
| Flint by 6–9 | 11% |
| Flint by 3–6 | 14% |
| Flint by 0–3 | 29% |
| Forstag by 0–3 | 14% |
| Forstag by 3–6 | 14% |
| Forstag by 6–9 | 5% |
| Forstag by 9–12 | 4% |
| Forstag by 12+ | 2% |