NY-17 House forecast
Lean Dem2024 linesProjected flip R → D
Polls close
Conley 60% chance
- Cait Conley (D)0% past 7 days60%
- Mike Lawler (R)+1% past 7 days41%
Chance over time
- Conley60%
- Lawler41%
Chance over time, past month: Conley from 65% to 60%; Lawler from 37% to 41%.
| Date | Conley | Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 65% | 37% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 64% | 36% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 64% | 37% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 60% | 40% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 60% | 41% |
Projected margin
Most likely Conley by 3–6 · 8 in 10: Lawler +9 to Conley +8.5
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Lawler by 12+ | 8% |
| Lawler by 9–12 | 2% |
| Lawler by 6–9 | 6% |
| Lawler by 3–6 | 4% |
| Lawler by 0–3 | 20% |
| Conley by 0–3 | 12% |
| Conley by 3–6 | 26% |
| Conley by 6–9 | 14% |
| Conley by 9–12 | 3% |
| Conley by 12+ | 5% |
Helm simulation
Decides House control in 1 of 100 simulations.
In simulated elections where Conley wins, Democrats win the House in 96 of 100. Where Lawler wins, in 86 of 100.
Context
- Held by Rep. Michael Lawler (R)
- Projected flip from Republicans to Democrats: the favourite is not from the party that holds it.