NY-25 House forecast
Safe Dem2024 lines
Polls close
Morelle 97% chance
- Joseph Morelle (D)0% past 7 days97%
- Virginia McIntyre (R)0% past 7 days3%
Chance over time
- Morelle97%
- McIntyre3%
Chance over time, past month: Morelle from 96% to 97%; McIntyre from 3% to 3%.
| Date | Morelle | McIntyre |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 96% | 3% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 97% | 3% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 97% | 2% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 97% | 2% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 97% | 3% |
Projected margin
Most likely Morelle by 35–40 · 8 in 10: Morelle +25.1 to Morelle +42.7
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| McIntyre wins | <1% |
| Morelle by 0–5 | <1% |
| Morelle by 5–15 | <1% |
| Morelle by 15–20 | 2% |
| Morelle by 20–25 | 7% |
| Morelle by 25–30 | 25% |
| Morelle by 30–35 | 15% |
| Morelle by 35–40 | 30% |
| Morelle by 40–45 | 19% |
| Morelle by 45+ | 1% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- Held by Rep. Joseph D. Morelle (D)