NY-16 House forecast
Safe Dem2024 lines
Polls close
Latimer 97% chance
- George Latimer (D)-1% past 7 days97%
- Joseph Cinquemani (R)0% past 7 days2%
Chance over time
- Latimer97%
- Cinquemani2%
Chance over time, past month: Latimer from 96% to 97%; Cinquemani from 3% to 2%.
| Date | Latimer | Cinquemani |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 96% | 3% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 97% | 3% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 96% | 4% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 98% | 2% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 97% | 2% |
Projected margin
Most likely Latimer by 50–55 · 8 in 10: Latimer +40.1 to Latimer +59.5
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Cinquemani wins | 1% |
| Latimer by 0–20 | 1% |
| Latimer by 20–30 | 1% |
| Latimer by 30–35 | 4% |
| Latimer by 35–40 | 4% |
| Latimer by 40–45 | 12% |
| Latimer by 45–50 | 26% |
| Latimer by 50–55 | 28% |
| Latimer by 55–60 | 15% |
| Latimer by 60+ | 9% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- Held by Rep. George Latimer (D)