NY-26 House forecast
Safe Dem2024 lines
Polls close
Kennedy 97% chance
- Tim Kennedy (D)0% past 7 days97%
- Dennis Hannon (R)0% past 7 days3%
Chance over time
- Kennedy97%
- Hannon3%
Chance over time, past month: Kennedy from 95% to 97%; Hannon from 4% to 3%.
| Date | Kennedy | Hannon |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 95% | 4% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 96% | 3% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 96% | 3% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 97% | 3% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 97% | 3% |
Projected margin
Most likely Kennedy by 35–40 · 8 in 10: Kennedy +25 to Kennedy +44.7
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Hannon wins | 4% |
| Kennedy by 0–10 | 4% |
| Kennedy by 10–20 | <1% |
| Kennedy by 20–25 | 3% |
| Kennedy by 25–30 | 9% |
| Kennedy by 30–35 | 19% |
| Kennedy by 35–40 | 29% |
| Kennedy by 40–45 | 25% |
| Kennedy by 45–50 | 8% |
| Kennedy by 50+ | 1% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- Held by Rep. Timothy M. Kennedy (D)