NY-12 House forecast
Safe Dem2024 lines
Polls close
Lasher 97% chance
- Micah Lasher (D)0% past 7 days97%
- Caroline Shinkle (R)0% past 7 days1%
Chance over time
- Lasher97%
- Shinkle1%
Chance over time, past month: Lasher from 97% to 97%; Shinkle from 1% to 1%.
| Date | Lasher | Shinkle |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 97% | 1% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 97% | 1% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 98% | <1% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 97% | <1% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 97% | 1% |
Projected margin
Most likely Lasher by 65–70 · 8 in 10: Lasher +55.3 to Lasher +74.8
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Shinkle wins | <1% |
| Lasher by 0–45 | 2% |
| Lasher by 45–55 | 7% |
| Lasher by 55–60 | 15% |
| Lasher by 60–65 | 25% |
| Lasher by 65–70 | 26% |
| Lasher by 70–75 | 17% |
| Lasher by 75–80 | 5% |
| Lasher by 80–85 | <1% |
| Lasher by 85+ | 4% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- Held by Rep. Jerrold Nadler (D)