NY-13 House forecast
Safe Dem2024 lines
Polls close
Chevalier 96% chance
- Darializa Avila Chevalier (D)-1% past 7 days96%
- Jomo Williams (R)+1% past 7 days3%
Chance over time
- Chevalier96%
- Williams3%
Chance over time, past month: Chevalier from 97% to 96%; Williams from 2% to 3%.
| Date | Chevalier | Williams |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | 97% | 2% |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 97% | 2% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 97% | 2% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 97% | 3% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 96% | 3% |
Projected margin
Most likely Chevalier by 70–75 · 8 in 10: Chevalier +63 to Chevalier +79.2
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Williams wins | <1% |
| Chevalier by 0–45 | 1% |
| Chevalier by 45–55 | <1% |
| Chevalier by 55–60 | 1% |
| Chevalier by 60–65 | 14% |
| Chevalier by 65–70 | 26% |
| Chevalier by 70–75 | 29% |
| Chevalier by 75–80 | 24% |
| Chevalier by 80–85 | 4% |
| Chevalier by 85+ | 2% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- Held by Rep. Adriano Espaillat (D)