NY-23 House forecast
Safe Rep2024 lines
Polls close
Langworthy 96% chance
- Aaron Gies (D)0% past 7 days2%
- Nick Langworthy (R)-1% past 7 days96%
Chance over time
- Gies2%
- Langworthy96%
Chance over time, past month: Gies from 4% to 2%; Langworthy from 96% to 96%.
| Date | Gies | Langworthy |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 4% | 96% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 4% | 95% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 5% | 95% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 3% | 95% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 2% | 96% |
Projected margin
Most likely Langworthy by 10–15 · 8 in 10: Langworthy +30.8 to Langworthy +7.9
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Langworthy by 35+ | 4% |
| Langworthy by 30–35 | 7% |
| Langworthy by 25–30 | 15% |
| Langworthy by 20–25 | 18% |
| Langworthy by 15–20 | 17% |
| Langworthy by 10–15 | 28% |
| Langworthy by 5–10 | 5% |
| Langworthy by 0–5 | 6% |
| Gies wins | 1% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- Held by Rep. Nicholas A. Langworthy (R)