NY-03 House forecast
Safe Dem2024 lines
Polls close
Suozzi 91% chance
- Tom Suozzi (D)+3% past 7 days91%
- Mike LiPetri (R)-2% past 7 days10%
Chance over time
- Suozzi91%
- LiPetri10%
Chance over time, past month: Suozzi from 92% to 91%; LiPetri from 8% to 10%.
| Date | Suozzi | LiPetri |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | 92% | 8% |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 91% | 8% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 87% | 13% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 88% | 12% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 91% | 10% |
Projected margin
Most likely Suozzi by 15–20 · 8 in 10: LiPetri +2.8 to Suozzi +19.7
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| LiPetri by 5+ | 5% |
| LiPetri by 0–5 | 11% |
| Suozzi by 0–5 | 7% |
| Suozzi by 5–10 | 17% |
| Suozzi by 10–15 | 25% |
| Suozzi by 15–20 | 28% |
| Suozzi by 20–25 | 3% |
| Suozzi by 25+ | 5% |
Helm simulation
Decides House control in 1 of 100 simulations.
In simulated elections where Suozzi wins, Democrats win the House in 93 of 100. Where LiPetri wins, in 77 of 100.
Context
- Held by Rep. Thomas R. Suozzi (D)