NY-14 House forecast
Safe Dem2024 lines
Polls close
Ocasio-Cortez 97% chance
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D)0% past 7 days97%
- Diamant Hysenaj (R)-1% past 7 days3%
Chance over time
- Ocasio-Cortez97%
- Hysenaj3%
Chance over time, past month: Ocasio-Cortez from 96% to 97%; Hysenaj from 4% to 3%.
| Date | Ocasio-Cortez | Hysenaj |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 96% | 4% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 96% | 4% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 96% | 3% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 97% | 3% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 97% | 3% |
Projected margin
Most likely Ocasio-Cortez by 40–45 · 8 in 10: Ocasio-Cortez +33.3 to Ocasio-Cortez +54.5
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Hysenaj wins | 1% |
| Ocasio-Cortez by 0–25 | 6% |
| Ocasio-Cortez by 25–35 | 4% |
| Ocasio-Cortez by 35–40 | 4% |
| Ocasio-Cortez by 40–45 | 38% |
| Ocasio-Cortez by 45–50 | 19% |
| Ocasio-Cortez by 50–55 | 21% |
| Ocasio-Cortez by 55–60 | 7% |
| Ocasio-Cortez by 60–65 | 1% |
| Ocasio-Cortez by 65+ | <1% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- Held by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D)