NY-02 House forecast
Likely Rep2024 lines
Polls close
Garbarino 81% chance
- Patrick Halpin (D)+5% past 7 days19%
- Andrew Garbarino (R)-4% past 7 days81%
Chance over time
- Halpin19%
- Garbarino81%
Chance over time, past month: Halpin from 14% to 19%; Garbarino from 86% to 81%.
| Date | Halpin | Garbarino |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 14% | 86% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 14% | 86% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 14% | 86% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 14% | 85% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 19% | 82% |
Projected margin
Most likely Garbarino by 3–6 · 8 in 10: Garbarino +18.5 to Halpin +1
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Garbarino by 21+ | 3% |
| Garbarino by 18–21 | 8% |
| Garbarino by 15–18 | 11% |
| Garbarino by 12–15 | 4% |
| Garbarino by 9–12 | 8% |
| Garbarino by 6–9 | 18% |
| Garbarino by 3–6 | 19% |
| Garbarino by 0–3 | 15% |
| Halpin by 0–3 | 10% |
| Halpin by 3+ | 4% |
Helm simulation
In simulated elections where Halpin wins, Democrats win the House in 98 of 100. Where Garbarino wins, in 90 of 100.
Context
- Held by Rep. Andrew R. Garbarino (R)