CO-08 House forecast
Likely Dem2024 linesProjected flip R → D
Polls close . Statewide at 7:00 PM local time. Every voter gets a mail ballot; vote centers are open too
Rutinel 84% chance
- Manny Rutinel (D)-1% past 7 days84%
- Gabe Evans (R)+1% past 7 days16%
Chance over time
- Rutinel84%
- Evans16%
Chance over time, past month: Rutinel from 81% to 84%; Evans from 18% to 16%.
| Date | Rutinel | Evans |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | 82% | 17% |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 86% | 13% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 86% | 14% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 85% | 14% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 84% | 16% |
Projected margin
Most likely Rutinel by 0–3 · 8 in 10: Evans +1 to Rutinel +16.5
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Evans by 3+ | 3% |
| Evans by 0–3 | 10% |
| Rutinel by 0–3 | 27% |
| Rutinel by 3–6 | 17% |
| Rutinel by 6–9 | 6% |
| Rutinel by 9–12 | 10% |
| Rutinel by 12–15 | 14% |
| Rutinel by 15–18 | 6% |
| Rutinel by 18–21 | 3% |
| Rutinel by 21+ | 4% |
Helm simulation
Decides House control in 1 of 100 simulations.
In simulated elections where Rutinel wins, Democrats win the House in 94 of 100. Where Evans wins, in 81 of 100.
Context
- Held by Rep. Gabe Evans (R)
- Projected flip from Republicans to Democrats: the favourite is not from the party that holds it.
More in Colorado
Ballot measures
- Colorado passes ballot measure imposing life sentences on underage sex traffickers?No 56%
- Colorado passes ballot measure restricting transgender school sports access?Yes 59%
- Colorado passes ballot measure banning underage transgender surgeries?Yes 60%