CO Senate forecast
Safe Dem
Polls close . Statewide at 7:00 PM local time. Every voter gets a mail ballot; vote centers are open too
Hickenlooper 99% chance
- John Hickenlooper (D)+1% past 7 days99%
- Mark Baisley (R)0% past 7 days1%
Chance over time
- Hickenlooper99%
- Baisley1%
Chance over time, past month: Hickenlooper from 96% to 99%; Baisley from 3% to 1%.
| Date | Hickenlooper | Baisley |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 96% | 3% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 98% | 2% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 98% | 2% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 98% | 2% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 99% | 1% |
Projected margin
Most likely Hickenlooper by 30+ · 8 in 10: Hickenlooper +7.7 to Hickenlooper +30
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Baisley wins | 2% |
| Hickenlooper by 0–5 | 4% |
| Hickenlooper by 5–10 | 7% |
| Hickenlooper by 10–15 | 7% |
| Hickenlooper by 15–20 | 16% |
| Hickenlooper by 20–25 | 18% |
| Hickenlooper by 25–30 | 21% |
| Hickenlooper by 30+ | 25% |
Helm simulation
Decides Senate control in 1 of 100 simulations.
In simulated elections where Hickenlooper wins, Democrats win the Senate in 65 of 100. Where Baisley wins, in 18 of 100.
Context
- Seat held by Democrats.
More in Colorado
Ballot measures
- Colorado passes ballot measure imposing life sentences on underage sex traffickers?No 56%
- Colorado passes ballot measure restricting transgender school sports access?Yes 59%
- Colorado passes ballot measure banning underage transgender surgeries?Yes 60%