NM Senate forecast
Safe Dem
Polls close . Statewide at 7:00 PM local time
Luján 98% chance
- Ben Ray Luján (D)0% past 7 days98%
- Larry Marker (R)+1% past 7 days2%
Chance over time
- Luján98%
- Marker2%
Chance over time, past month: Luján from 97% to 98%; Marker from 3% to 2%.
| Date | Luján | Marker |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 97% | 3% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 97% | 2% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 98% | 2% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 98% | 2% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 98% | 2% |
Projected margin
Most likely Luján by 21+ · 8 in 10: Luján +7.8 to Luján +21
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Marker by 3+ | 3% |
| Marker by 0–3 | 1% |
| Luján by 0–3 | <1% |
| Luján by 3–6 | 2% |
| Luján by 6–9 | 6% |
| Luján by 9–12 | 4% |
| Luján by 12–15 | 6% |
| Luján by 15–18 | 11% |
| Luján by 18–21 | 21% |
| Luján by 21+ | 45% |
Helm simulation
Decides Senate control in 1 of 100 simulations.
In simulated elections where Luján wins, Democrats win the Senate in 65 of 100. Where Marker wins, in 20 of 100.
Context
- Seat held by Democrats.