OK Senate forecast
Safe Rep
Polls close . Statewide at 7:00 PM local time
Hern 97% chance
- N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas (D)0% past 7 days2%
- Kevin Hern (R)-1% past 7 days97%
Chance over time
- Thomas2%
- Hern97%
Chance over time, past month: Thomas from 3% to 2%; Hern from 97% to 97%.
| Date | Thomas | Hern |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 3% | 97% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 2% | 98% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 2% | 98% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 2% | 97% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 2% | 97% |
Projected margin
Most likely Hern by 20–25 · 8 in 10: Hern +35.7 to Hern +10.7
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Hern by 45+ | 2% |
| Hern by 40–45 | 2% |
| Hern by 35–40 | 7% |
| Hern by 30–35 | 13% |
| Hern by 25–30 | 16% |
| Hern by 20–25 | 23% |
| Hern by 15–20 | 16% |
| Hern by 10–15 | 13% |
| Hern by 0–10 | 6% |
| Thomas wins | 2% |