OK-03 House forecast
Safe Rep2024 lines
Polls close . Statewide at 7:00 PM local time
Lucas 96% chance
- Suzie Byrd (D)+2% past 7 days2%
- Frank Lucas (R)0% past 7 days96%
Chance over time
- Byrd2%
- Lucas96%
Chance over time, past month: Byrd from 1% to 2%; Lucas from 97% to 96%.
| Date | Byrd | Lucas |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 1% | 97% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 1% | 97% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 1% | 96% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 1% | 96% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 2% | 96% |
Projected margin
Most likely Lucas by 35–40 · 8 in 10: Lucas +48.5 to Lucas +26.2
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Lucas by 50+ | 5% |
| Lucas by 45–50 | 17% |
| Lucas by 40–45 | 17% |
| Lucas by 35–40 | 29% |
| Lucas by 30–35 | 16% |
| Lucas by 25–30 | 7% |
| Lucas by 20–25 | 3% |
| Lucas by 10–20 | 3% |
| Lucas by 0–10 | 1% |
| Byrd wins | <1% |