OK-05 House forecast
Likely Rep2024 lines
Polls close . Statewide at 7:00 PM local time
Bice 85% chance
- Jena Nelson (D)+4% past 7 days14%
- Stephanie Bice (R)-5% past 7 days85%
Chance over time
- Nelson14%
- Bice85%
Chance over time, past month: Nelson from 12% to 14%; Bice from 87% to 85%.
| Date | Nelson | Bice |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 11% | 87% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 14% | 86% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 13% | 87% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 11% | 90% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 14% | 86% |
Projected margin
Most likely Bice by 5–10 · 8 in 10: Bice +25.8 to a Nelson win
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Bice by 30+ | 5% |
| Bice by 25–30 | 6% |
| Bice by 20–25 | 4% |
| Bice by 15–20 | 17% |
| Bice by 10–15 | 20% |
| Bice by 5–10 | 23% |
| Bice by 0–5 | 12% |
| Nelson wins | 13% |