IA-01 House forecast
Safe Dem2024 linesProjected flip R → D
Polls close . Statewide at 8:00 PM local time
Bohannan 91% chance
- Christina Bohannan (D)+2% past 7 days91%
- Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R)-1% past 7 days9%
Chance over time
- Bohannan91%
- Miller-Meeks9%
Chance over time, past month: Bohannan from 77% to 91%; Miller-Meeks from 22% to 9%.
| Date | Bohannan | Miller-Meeks |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | 80% | 22% |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 82% | 16% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 85% | 15% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 89% | 10% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 91% | 9% |
Projected margin
No margin forecast for this race.
Helm simulation
Decides House control in 1 of 100 simulations.
In simulated elections where Bohannan wins, Democrats win the House in 93 of 100. Where Miller-Meeks wins, in 78 of 100.
Context
- Held by Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R)
- Projected flip from Republicans to Democrats: the favourite is not from the party that holds it.