IA-04 House forecast
Safe Rep2024 lines
Polls close . Statewide at 8:00 PM local time
McGowan 96% chance
- David Dawson (D)-4% past 7 days<1%
- Chris McGowan (R)0% past 7 days96%
Chance over time
- Dawson1%
- McGowan96%
Chance over time, past month: Dawson from 7% to 1%; McGowan from 93% to 96%.
| Date | Dawson | McGowan |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 6% | 95% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 6% | 95% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 5% | 95% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 5% | 96% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 1% | 96% |
Projected margin
Most likely McGowan by 20–25 · 8 in 10: McGowan +29.2 to McGowan +9.7
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| McGowan by 35+ | 5% |
| McGowan by 30–35 | 4% |
| McGowan by 25–30 | 9% |
| McGowan by 20–25 | 26% |
| McGowan by 15–20 | 23% |
| McGowan by 10–15 | 23% |
| McGowan by 5–10 | 6% |
| McGowan by 0–5 | 3% |
| Dawson wins | 1% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- Held by Rep. Randy Feenstra (R)