CA-48 House forecast
Safe Dem2026 lines
Polls close . Statewide at 8:00 PM local time. Every voter gets a mail ballot; polling places are open too
von Wilpert 94% chance
- Marni von Wilpert (D)0% past 7 days94%
- Jim Desmond (R)-1% past 7 days7%
Chance over time
- von Wilpert94%
- Desmond7%
Chance over time, past month: von Wilpert from 89% to 94%; Desmond from 12% to 7%.
| Date | von Wilpert | Desmond |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 89% | 12% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 90% | 11% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 90% | 9% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 94% | 8% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 94% | 7% |
Projected margin
No margin forecast for this race.
Helm simulation
Decides House control in 1 of 100 simulations.
In simulated elections where von Wilpert wins, Democrats win the House in 93 of 100. Where Desmond wins, in 75 of 100.
Context
- New lines for 2026: the current CA-48 member was elected on different lines.
More in California
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Ballot measures
- Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?No 78%