CA-24 House forecast
Safe Dem2026 lines
Polls close . Statewide at 8:00 PM local time. Every voter gets a mail ballot; polling places are open too
Carbajal 98% chance
- Salud Carbajal (D)0% past 7 days98%
- Bob Smith (R)0% past 7 days2%
Chance over time
- Carbajal98%
- Smith2%
Chance over time, past month: Carbajal from 98% to 98%; Smith from 1% to 2%.
| Date | Carbajal | Smith |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | 98% | 1% |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 98% | 2% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 98% | 2% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 98% | 2% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 98% | 2% |
Projected margin
No margin forecast for this race.
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- New lines for 2026: the current CA-24 member was elected on different lines.
More in California
51 more House districts
Ballot measures
- Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?No 78%