CA-22 House forecast
Safe Dem2026 lines
Polls close . Statewide at 8:00 PM local time. Every voter gets a mail ballot; polling places are open too
Villegas 90% chance
- Randy Villegas (D)-2% past 7 days90%
- David Valadao (R)+2% past 7 days11%
Chance over time
- Villegas90%
- Valadao11%
Chance over time, past month: Villegas from 90% to 90%; Valadao from 7% to 11%.
| Date | Villegas | Valadao |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 90% | 7% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 91% | 9% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 93% | 7% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 93% | 8% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 90% | 11% |
Projected margin
No margin forecast for this race.
Helm simulation
Decides House control in 1 of 100 simulations.
In simulated elections where Villegas wins, Democrats win the House in 93 of 100. Where Valadao wins, in 78 of 100.
Context
- New lines for 2026: the current CA-22 member was elected on different lines.
More in California
51 more House districts
Ballot measures
- Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?No 78%