CA-33 House forecast
Safe Dem2026 lines
Polls close . Statewide at 8:00 PM local time. Every voter gets a mail ballot; polling places are open too
Aguilar 96% chance
- Pete Aguilar (D)0% past 7 days96%
- Stephanie Vargas (R)0% past 7 days5%
Chance over time
- Aguilar96%
- Vargas5%
Chance over time, past month: Aguilar from 95% to 96%; Vargas from 6% to 5%.
| Date | Aguilar | Vargas |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 96% | 5% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 95% | 5% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 96% | 5% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 96% | 5% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 96% | 5% |
Projected margin
No margin forecast for this race.
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- New lines for 2026: the current CA-33 member was elected on different lines.
More in California
51 more House districts
Ballot measures
- Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?No 78%