CA-01 House forecast
Safe Dem2026 lines
Polls close . Statewide at 8:00 PM local time. Every voter gets a mail ballot; polling places are open too
McGuire 96% chance
- Mike McGuire (D)+3% past 7 days96%
- James Gallagher (R)-3% past 7 days3%
Chance over time
- McGuire96%
- Gallagher3%
Chance over time, past month: McGuire from 97% to 96%; Gallagher from 3% to 3%.
| Date | McGuire | Gallagher |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 97% | 3% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 95% | 4% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 95% | 6% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 95% | 5% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 96% | 3% |
Projected margin
No margin forecast for this race.
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- New lines for 2026: the current CA-01 member was elected on different lines.
More in California
51 more House districts
Ballot measures
- Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?No 78%