CA-45 House forecast
Safe Dem2026 lines
Polls close . Statewide at 8:00 PM local time. Every voter gets a mail ballot; polling places are open too
Tran 94% chance
- Derek Tran (D)+2% past 7 days94%
- Chuong Vo (R)-2% past 7 days7%
Chance over time
- Tran94%
- Vo7%
Chance over time, past month: Tran from 94% to 94%; Vo from 7% to 7%.
| Date | Tran | Vo |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 93% | 7% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 92% | 7% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 95% | 6% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 92% | 8% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 94% | 7% |
Projected margin
No margin forecast for this race.
Helm simulation
In simulated elections where Tran wins, Democrats win the House in 93 of 100. Where Vo wins, in 75 of 100.
Context
- New lines for 2026: the current CA-45 member was elected on different lines.
More in California
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Ballot measures
- Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?No 78%