CA-09 House forecast
Safe Dem2026 lines
Polls close . Statewide at 8:00 PM local time. Every voter gets a mail ballot; polling places are open too
Harder 97% chance
- Josh Harder (D)-1% past 7 days97%
- John McBride (R)+2% past 7 days5%
Chance over time
- Harder97%
- McBride5%
Chance over time, past month: Harder from 94% to 97%; McBride from 6% to 5%.
| Date | Harder | McBride |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 96% | 6% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 95% | 6% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 98% | 3% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 98% | 3% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 97% | 5% |
Projected margin
No margin forecast for this race.
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- New lines for 2026: the current CA-09 member was elected on different lines.
More in California
51 more House districts
Ballot measures
- Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?No 78%