CA-21 House forecast
Safe Dem2026 lines
Polls close . Statewide at 8:00 PM local time. Every voter gets a mail ballot; polling places are open too
Costa 96% chance
- Jim Costa (D)-1% past 7 days96%
- Kyle Kirkland (R)0% past 7 days4%
Chance over time
- Costa96%
- Kirkland4%
Chance over time, past month: Costa from 94% to 96%; Kirkland from 7% to 4%.
| Date | Costa | Kirkland |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 94% | 7% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 94% | 8% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 97% | 3% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 97% | 4% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 96% | 4% |
Projected margin
No margin forecast for this race.
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- New lines for 2026: the current CA-21 member was elected on different lines.
More in California
51 more House districts
Ballot measures
- Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?No 78%