MO-03 House forecast
Safe Rep2024 lines
Polls close . Statewide at 7:00 PM local time
Onder 96% chance
- Bethany Mann (D)0% past 7 days2%
- Bob Onder (R)0% past 7 days96%
Chance over time
- Mann2%
- Onder96%
Chance over time, past month: Mann from 4% to 2%; Onder from 94% to 96%.
| Date | Mann | Onder |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 4% | 94% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 4% | 94% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 2% | 97% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 2% | 97% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 2% | 96% |
Projected margin
Most likely Onder by 15–20 · 8 in 10: Onder +29.6 to Onder +7.4
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Onder by 30+ | 9% |
| Onder by 25–30 | 17% |
| Onder by 20–25 | 15% |
| Onder by 15–20 | 23% |
| Onder by 10–15 | 17% |
| Onder by 5–10 | 17% |
| Onder by 0–5 | <1% |
| Mann wins | 1% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- Held by Rep. Robert F. Onder, Jr. (R)
More in Missouri
Ballot measures
- Will the Missouri abortion & sex change for minors ban pass?Yes 57%
- Missouri passes ballot measure to redistrict?No 75%