MO-04 House forecast
Safe Rep2024 lines
Polls close . Statewide at 7:00 PM local time
Alford 96% chance
- Jordan Herrera (D)+1% past 7 days4%
- Mark Alford (R)0% past 7 days96%
Chance over time
- Herrera4%
- Alford96%
Chance over time, past month: Herrera from 8% to 4%; Alford from 93% to 96%.
| Date | Herrera | Alford |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 8% | 93% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 8% | 93% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 6% | 93% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 3% | 94% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 4% | 96% |
Projected margin
Most likely Alford by 30+ · 8 in 10: Alford +30 to Alford +11.8
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Alford by 30+ | 56% |
| Alford by 25–30 | 15% |
| Alford by 20–25 | 11% |
| Alford by 15–20 | 5% |
| Alford by 10–15 | 4% |
| Alford by 5–10 | 2% |
| Alford by 0–5 | 3% |
| Herrera wins | 4% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- Held by Rep. Mark Alford (R)
More in Missouri
Ballot measures
- Will the Missouri abortion & sex change for minors ban pass?Yes 57%
- Missouri passes ballot measure to redistrict?No 75%