MO-02 House forecast
Likely Rep2024 lines
Polls close . Statewide at 7:00 PM local time
Wagner 75% chance
- Fred Wellman (D)+3% past 7 days26%
- Ann Wagner (R)-2% past 7 days75%
Chance over time
- Wellman26%
- Wagner75%
Chance over time, past month: Wellman from 31% to 26%; Wagner from 71% to 75%.
| Date | Wellman | Wagner |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 23% | 74% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 28% | 72% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 27% | 74% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 23% | 77% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 26% | 75% |
Projected margin
Most likely Wagner by 3–6 · 8 in 10: Wagner +11.1 to Wellman +5.8
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Wagner by 18+ | 5% |
| Wagner by 15–18 | <1% |
| Wagner by 12–15 | 3% |
| Wagner by 9–12 | 6% |
| Wagner by 6–9 | 18% |
| Wagner by 3–6 | 19% |
| Wagner by 0–3 | 18% |
| Wellman by 0–3 | 9% |
| Wellman by 3–6 | 13% |
| Wellman by 6+ | 9% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- Held by Rep. Ann Wagner (R)
More in Missouri
Ballot measures
- Will the Missouri abortion & sex change for minors ban pass?Yes 57%
- Missouri passes ballot measure to redistrict?No 75%